Political, so feel free to not go past the cut, especially since, in true Rob style, it’s longish.
1st Pick – St. Louis
QB Sam Bradford
I really really do not like this pick. St. Louis needs a QB, no doubt, but he could be the second coming of Joe Montana and still not have a chance with that OLine. They have too many holes for a good QB to really show his stuff and his development will be challenged. I would have tried to trade down and if that didn’t work I would have taken Ndomakong Suh.
2nd Pick – Detroit
DT Ndomakong Suh
Great pick, great player, great person. I have seen a lot of people talking that McCoy is the better DT in this draft. I don’t see it. Suh will have some moments where he gets blown out at the point of attack, mostly because he likes to stand up a little too much. However, he has shown the ability to adjust and he’ll be a beast. The only real concern I have are his knees, because it would be a shame if his career got derailed by injury.
3rd Pick – Tampa Bay
DT Gerald McCoy
I would say that this is a good solid pick mostly because he’s so highly rated by the professionals. However, I am not sold on McCoy and I cannot tell you why. Maybe it’s because as a friend puts it, he’s a “whiny baby.” She might be right. I have concerns about his size and his ability to be productive in the NFL, but what do I know?
4th Pick – Washington
OT Trent Williams
As a Cowboys fan I like this pick. I think the Redskins needed to get an OLineman, but I don’t think that Williams was the best of the bunch. I think Okung is better because I think his technique is and always will be better. Williams is more athletic, but OLine is much more about technique than athleticism. I would say that thus far, he has the highest risk so far, with perhaps the exception of Bradford and I think Bradford’s problem will be the team around him, not his talent.
5th Pick – Kansas City
S Eric Berry
I suppose we had to get a non-Big XII pick eventually. I like this pick, especially for KC. Their defensive backfield was wretched last year and a good safety really thrives in a 3-4 defense. I think he’ll do well. Suh was an easy choice for the Lions, and I would say this is the best pick after that.
As a side note, ESPN is saying that Tampa Bay might want to trade back up to the 1st round. Dallas would be a potential trade partner here.
6th Pick – Seattle
OT Russell Okung
This is the person that Washington should have taken at 4. I think Okung will be a very good tackle in this league for a while. I don’t think he’ll be in the Ogden/Pace/Walter Jones range, but he’ll have a number of Pro Bowls to his credit when he’s done.
7th Pick – Cleveland
CB Joe Haden
The commentators are panning this pick and I tend to agree. This was a “reach” pick for a player that could be had later, though maybe Cleveland could not find a partner. I liked their strategy in general, as to me there is no QB, OL, WR, or ILB to take here, and that is what Cleveland needs. However, I’m not sure this is the CB to take right now.
8th Pick – Oakland
ILB Rolando McClain
And Oakland makes what is to me an odd choice. McClain is a nice player, and will help their defense vs. the run, but it seems early to me to draft a platoon player.
9th Pick – Buffalo
RB C.J. Spiller
I really like Spiller and think he’ll be a good back in this league. This is especially true since he can be paired with Jackson in Buffalo and help limit his durability problems. However, I don’t think he’s the next coming of Marshall Faulk and I think a comparably productive RB could have been found in the 3rd or 4th. This is especially true given that the Bills need just about everything else.
10th Pick – Jacksonville
DL Tyson Alualu
I really liked Alualu… for Dallas at Pick 27. For that matter, I saw some mock drafts having him going in the second round. He’ll be a solid player in this league I think, but has a relatively low ceiling to go at the 10th pick.
11th Pick – San Francisco
OT Anthony Davis
San Fran traded up 2 picks with Denver to make this pick. They must really think that Miami was going to take who they wanted to give up a 4th round pick to move down two spots. For now, I have to say that Denver will get value out of their pick. Nevertheless, I do like the pick for Sand Francisco. I think Anthony Davis will be a solid OT for a while, maybe not as good as Okung, certainly not as talented as Williams, but more likely to develop. His run blocking may be an issue, but that technique can be taught. I’m not sure the difference between him and Brian Bulaga is worth a 4th, however.
12th Pick – San Diego
RB Ryan Mathews
This is a major trade up. I have not yet seen the cost, but I suspect Miami is overjoyed with the opportunity and the haul. And I don’t like the pick at all. Mathews is a nice player, and he’ll be a productive RB, but again I don’t see the difference between him and a 3rd/4th round RB as being all that much, even if they didn’t have to pay to trade up. Update – San Diego traded the 28th, 40th, and 126th picks of the draft for the number 12, to take an RB. Bad value there.
13th Pick – Philadelphia
DE Brandon Graham
And the fun continues for Denver, who is just reaping the corn right now. Denver has now gotten 2 3rds and a 4th for moving down from the 11th pick to the 24th. Great value for them. And as a Cowboys fan I don’t mind who they traded up to get. Brandon Graham has the potential to be a solid player, but I don’t see him as a star. That’s a lot to pay for him.
Another side note. It’s not that some of these players are bad choices per se, it’s just that in what is being called the deepest draft in years, the odds are significantly better that you’ll get a good player if you make more picks. Denver just got 4 picks for their first round pick. I’ll lay odds that 2 of those picks become productive players and it’s the rare talent that is better than 2 productive ones. Those guys were gone 1-2-3 in this draft.
14th Pick – Seattle
S Earl Thomas
I like this pick a goodly amount for Seattle. I think Thomas will be a good player. He may have some problems in the box, but he’ll create some big plays. He fits a need and this is a solid pick.
15th Pick – New York Giants
DE Jason Pierre-Paul
I really like Pierre-Paul… in the second round. He can get to the QB, but he’s not as good as Osi Umenyiora. Pierre-Paul will be a good player, but not in 2010. This is another reach to me. So far, as a Cowboys fan, I’m thinking the rest of the NFC East has not picked very well so far.
16th Pick – Tennessee
DE Derrick Morgan
I really like this pick, and this shows why I don’t like the Giant’s pick. Morgan is a much better prospect than Pierre-Paul. I really think Morgan will be a very good DE in the NFL. He reminds me of Greg Ellis, who contributed 8 or so sacks a year and played solid run defense.
17th Pick – San Francisco
OL Mike Iupati
Another pick a I really like. Iupati is a really solid player all across the OLine, and combined with Anthony Davis, the 49ers have dramatically improved their OLine. I like this focus for the 49ers, and I think it will really work for their system.
18th Pick – Pittsburgh
C/G Maurkice Pouncey
And three in a row. C/Gs tend to fall in the draft to the 2nd/3rd round, but I think both Iupati and Pouncey will be solid players for two teams whose systems require a good OLine.
19th Pick – Atlanta
LB Sean Weatherspoon
And the Mizzou fans go Yayyy. I think Spoon has immense talent, but he will need to learn the game. He’ll be a player that will play slow and be a step late a ton in 2010 but will become more productive as his training catches up to his tools. I predicted he’d go around 20. Yayyy for me.
20th Pick – Houston
CB Kareem Jackson
One reason that this draft has been termed deep is that the third tier of players that usually go in whatever order from 15-40 or so really is about half again that number 35-40 instead of 25 or so, without reducing the fourth tier pool. Jackson was one of that group and so he’s a decent pick here. I can see him being a decent player, but I suspect he’ll be over-rated by fans as I suspect he’ll get a bunch of INTs but give up a lot of big plays. My question here is why him and not Wilson?
21st Pick – Cincinnati
TE Jermaine Gresham
Good pick both for need and value. Cincinnati’s needed someone in the middle to free up stuff on the outside. I doubt he’ll ever be a great blocker, but he’ll catch a bunch of passes and score quite a few TDs in his days in Cincy. Assuming, of course, he doesn’t turn into a head case like so many Cincy players.
22nd Pick – Denver
WR Demaryious Thomas
Denver traded up from 24 to get this pick, giving up the 113th pick in exchange. Remember, they’re still two picks up in the 3rd round so they’re doing well and they obviously have a target. My guess is Bulaga… and I am wrong. I don’t get the trade here, because I don’t think that Green Bay would have taken him, but what do I know. What I do think is that Thomas is the lesser talent than WR Dez Bryant, who remains on the board. Thomas is something like Jackson, the kind of guy who blows the routine plays but will create some big ones.
23rd Pick – Green Bay
OT Brian Bulaga
Wow, he dropped a lot farther than people expected. I don’t know why, unless it was just bad luck. I think he’ll be a good OT, maybe a Pro Bowl here and there, and a long career. Nice choice for the Cheeseheads.
24th Pick – Dallas
WR Dez Bryant
The commentators are suggesting Dez Bryant here and it makes sense. He’d go great with Moss and Brady, and Moss is not getting any younger. But there are rumblings of a trade with Dallas here… and what did Dallas give up? Dallas gave up 27 and 90 for 24 and 119 to take Dez Bryant. Wow, I have to say this is a good move. I think Bryant’s a tremendous player and WR is a position of some need in Dallas. Most importantly, Dallas did not give up 2 picks for 1. I’ll trade down 29 slots, especially in this draft, to get Bryant. This seems like a really nice value for a team that was in the 27th spot.
25th Pick – Denver
QB Tim Tebow
Denver traded up to get this pick and it looks like Tim Tebow. I’m really not sure about Tebow. He’s a great athlete, and he’s a fantastic football player, but will his attributes translate at the NFL level? And to trade a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th? I was complimenting them earlier, but I’m not sure now. To turn their 1st and 2nd into Demaryious Thomas, Tim Tebow and move up to the 3rd from the 4th as opposed to taking value in the slots that they originally had? Seems like they just gave the house its money back to me.
26th Pick – Arizona
NT Dan Williams
If Arizona doesn’t take DT Dan Williams here they are idiots. No one anticipated he’d fall here. I like the Bryant pick for Dallas but would not have complained if they had taken Williams either. Both were players who seemed more like second tier talents, as opposed to the third tier. And, look, the current version of the Cardinals are not idiots. Great value here. I can’t believe Williams fell this far. He’ll be a monster NT for the Cardinals for a while.
27th Pick – New England
CB Devin McCourty
I like this pick. Humorously I was hoping he’d fall to 27 and be there for Dallas after all of the other people Dallas might want would be gone. But Dez was there at 24 and Jerry pulled the trigger. I also like this from New England’s point of view. They needed another CB, and they got a lot of picks by trading down. New England did what Denver did but gave up. I’m still curious why Wilson hasn’t gone yet though.
28th Pick – Miami
DT Jared Odrick
Another good pick I think. I think he has the potential to make a few Pro Bowls and will be a good player on a good defense. Another player who fell farther than I expected because of some questionable picks earlier.
29th Pick – New York Jets
CB Kyle Wilson
I don’t know why his stock dropped so much. He was expected to go somewhere in the early teens and was talked about in the first 10 picks. I think he’ll be a very good CB, think Kareem Jackson who was taken earlier but more consistent.
30th Pick – Detroit Lions
RB Jahvid Best
This draft has not gone particularly well for the Vikings. Jimmy Claussen is still here and he’s probably a decent value pick here. I’m just not sold on Claussen and I think he’ll be a bust. However, in Minnesota, he might have the time to sit on the sidelines and develop without too much pressure, which might work for him. I’m more of a fan of Colt McCoy, but not all that sold on him either. A QB would be nice, because I don’t think Favre will play forever 🙂
However the Vikings have traded this pick to the Lions who have taken RB Jahvid Best. I really like Best and think he’ll be an explosive player, but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you only trade up for the Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Tony Dorsett, HOF kind of RB, not the RB who will give you several 1,000 yard years. There are just too many of them. It looks like they gave up their 4th and 7th to move up 4 picks. Wow, that’s way expensive to me. Good trade for Minnesota.
31st Pick – Indianapolis Colts
OLB Jerry Hughes
I think I like this pick. He’s a little small, but he’s fast and productive. I suspect he’ll fit in well with Indianopolis, though, who uses undersized defensive players such as Dwight Freeney very well.
32nd Pick – New Orleans Saints
DB Patrick Robinson
I have to laugh because ESPN Draft Central is showing the Saints as being up with the Baltimore Ravens logo 🙂 The Saints choose DB Patrick Robinson, another in the mass of third tier players who should go around here. However, they were OK in the secondary last year and I’m not quite sure how he fits in or if he’s the best fit with those available on the board. It’s appropriate value, though, and you can never have too many DBs anymore so it’s definitely not a bad pick.
Off the Cuff Winners
Detroit with Suh, though they lost value in trading up for Best
Dallas with Bryant
Arizona with Williams
KC with Berry
Seattle with Okung and Thomas
Off the Cuff Losers
Denver with Tebow. What a waste. They had done so well up to that point.
Jacksonville with Alualu
Buffalo with Spiller
Philly with Graham
Generally every team that traded up. Dallas is the one exception because they came out with the same number of picks.
Of course, none of this prognostication can be evaluated for 4-5 years. Nevertheless, it’s fun to make these guesses now 🙂
Have fun over the weekend, I’ll follow the draft by people texting me who the Cowboys got as I’m off for the fyrd retreat.