Category Archives: Personal

2015 AFC East

AFC East (2014 Finish: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins.)

Overall Notes: I did a good job of picking the order last year, but I made a number of mistakes about the details along the way.

None of the teams in this division were particularly lucky or unlucky, with all of their Pythagorean win totals being within 1 of their actual win total.

I don’t see a great deal of change in the order this year, simply because of Tom Brady. None of the other teams can come close. I will say I would not be surprised if both wildcards come from this division, as I think both Buffalo and Miami can win 10 games.

New England Patriots 
2014 Record: 12-4 (Pythagorean Wins: 11.8)
2014 Division Rank: 1st (My prediction: 1st)
2014 Injury Rank: 12th
2015 Age Rank: 13th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 4th (6th / 11th / 5th)

I said last year there are cracks in the armor, and if I was right, there wasn’t much sign of it. They ended up 4th best in the NFL in overall DVOA, peaking at the end. Worse, I suggested that they would get carried by their defense. I was wrong there too. Their defense was 11th in the NFL, but their offense was 6th and their special teams was 5th. In other words a very good to great offense and special teams propelled them to the Super Bowl.

I think my biggest mistake was thinking they were older than they were. Had I done better research I would have known they’re middle of the pack, so my anticipation that they would fall off some was based on lazy information.

They remain middle of the pack in age and injury. I do think the 2015 Patriots won’t be as good as the 2014 Patriots. I see a slight dropoff in efficiency, say overall in the 5th or 6th in DVOA. Will that be enough for the Bills or Dolphins to catch them? I doubt it.

The won the AFC East by 3 games last year. I think they’ll win only by 1 game this year, with a record around 11-5, in part because I think all of the other teams in the AFC East are better.

Miami Dolphins
2014 Record: 8-8 (Pythagorean Wins: 8.4)
2014 Division Rank: 3rd (My prediction: 3rd)
2014 Injury Rank: 21st
2015 Age Rank: 4th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 15th (7th /17th / 32nd)

Last year I thought they’d be mediocre on offense. I was wrong, they were 7th. I predicted an average defense and I was correct as they ended up 17th. With awful special teams, this team ended up middle of the pack.

Where I was wrong was my evaluation of Ryan Tannehill. For some reason, I just don’t like his game, yet the statistics show that he is both consistent and good. Is he a great QB, no, but he’s much better than I felt.

Hence, this year, I see some continued development on the offense. They’ll remain in the 7th overall range. Ndamokung Suh will help that defense. I think they’ll move up a little, say 10th in DVOA. The key to me will be if they can improve their special teams, because they were truly wretched last year.

Part of the reason I anticipate they’ll do well is that they’ve gotten younger, at 4th in the NFL. I see this team making mistakes and losing some games they shouldn’t early but peaking in December.  Overall, I think they’ll end up 10-6ish and a wildcard team.

Buffalo Bills
2014 Record: 9-7 (Pythagorean Wins: 9.6)
2014 Division Rank: 2nd (My prediction: 2nd)
2014 Injury Rank: 10th
2015 Age Rank: 10th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 9th (26th / 2nd / 4th)

Consider the Bills 2014 DVOA. 26th in the NFL in offense, 2nd in defense, and 4th in special teams. Which of these is not like the others?

Last year,  I said that if E.J. Manuel could be solid, they would surprise people. Clearly, if their offense was 26th, he was awful.

I’ll say it again, if Tyrod Taylor and the skill position players can give the Bills an average offense, something around 15th, then this team will make it to the playoffs and will have a puncher’s chance of dethroning New England. This defense is really good.

That’s a big if, of course, as Taylor is on his 2nd team and really hasn’t shown that much. There are signs he’s improved, but we have to see something in the regular season.

Until I see something from Taylor, I’m going to put the Bills in 3rd place in the AFC East, but don’t go to sleep on this defense.

New York Jets
2014 Record: 4-12 (Pythagorean Wins: 4.8)
2014 Division Rank: 4th (My prediction: 4th)
2014 Injury Rank: 2nd
2015 Age Rank: 27th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 27th (25th / 21st / 16th)

This team is better on paper. Todd Bowles is an amazing coach.  But…

I said last year they’d be inefficient on offense. I was right, they ended up 25th in the NFL. I said last year they’d be inefficient on defense. I was right there too, as they finished 21st. Average special teams didn’t help. They did all of this despite being the 2nd most lucky team when it came to injuries.

This year they’re old, being the 27th youngest team, having brought in aging veterans to paper the cracks. This won’t work. These veterans will get hurt and this team will probably be worse in 2015.

2-14 is not out of the question. This kind of a record would be a good thing if they’re willing to stay to the path with Bowles. They need talent. Sadly, Jets fans are not patient and Jets ownership hasn’t been good.

Things don’t look good here.

 

I Am Ready For Some Football (Introduction)

The 2015 NFL season is nigh unto here. I’m so ready. Part of the reason is because I’m bullish about my Cowboys, but I’ll get to them in a bit.

Since I did a post like this last year, I’ll be reviewing how I did as well as prognosticating this year.

I actually did two posts last year. The first one, A New Season, is a good background of my methods and theories about the challenges of predicting the NFL. This year, I’ll do ten posts. This one, which will explain my methodology, and a post about each of the divisions. Plus I’ll sum it all up for those who don’t want the details.

I want to emphasize two main points. First, luck is way more important than many sportscasters, coaches, and players want to acknowledge. There aren’t that many plays in an NFL game, and there are only 16 in a year. Small sample sizes are prevalent.

One of the tools we can use to gauge how lucky a team is in a given year is to look at their Pythagorean record. Basically, this is a statistic based upon a team’s point differential. Teams that score lots more than their opponents tend to have better records than teams that don’t. Given all of the years of the NFL, we can determine what record should, on average, ensue from a given point differential.

Secondly, on average, 6 out of 12 playoff teams are not in the playoffs the following year because of regression to mean, bad luck, harder schedule, injuries, or just the whimsy of the NFL universe.

To anticipate these changes, I’ll look at what a team’s Pythagorean record was, their age, and the number of injuries they suffered last year.

Teams who exceeded their Pythagorean will tend to regress to the mean. Teams who are older will tend to have more injuries. I wouldn’t be surprised if older teams fade at the end of the year, though I’ve not seen studies on this. Teams that had a bunch of injuries will tend to regress to the mean, depending upon their age.

The other post was the breakdown of each team at And They’re Off. This is the post I’ll be referring to constantly to determine where I was right and wrong.

One more thing. I’ll be making a lot of references to DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), which is an advanced stat developed by Football Outsiders. Here’s an explanation how it works at DVOA. The main thing to note is that not every yard is created equal. A gain of 10 yards on 3rd and 20 is useless, while a 2 yard gain on 3rd and 1 is productive. DVOA looks at every play, figures out what the average result would be, then compares the actual result to that average.

In any case, it provides a single value to compare teams on offense, defense, and special teams. It’s an esoteric system, but for the purposes of this exercise, it means I can use one statistic consistently to help make comparisons. Last year, it suggested that going into the playoffs the Seahawks and the Patriots were the best teams in the NFL.

With that said, let’s get to it. I’ll start with the AFC East and the AFC North, because Pittsburgh and New England play tomorrow night.

 

Notes and Updates

Greetings all

First, I meant to announce this much sooner, but the draft for The Eyes of a Doll has been sent to my editor. Also, Patrick McEvoy has agreed to do the cover art again. We are on schedule for our planned date to publish on 1 December.

As always, I’m my own worst critic. But there’s some parts of this book I really like, so I just need to get the rest up to snuff.

While I wait on the first edited copy, I’m working on the next book, which for working purposes I’m calling I Am a Wondrous Thing. I’m making good progress and feel like it will be a fun story.

Looking through the convention list, I’m thinking I’m probably done with conventions for the rest of 2015. I’m planning on expanding the number of conventions I’ll be going to in 2016, though.

Sooooo…., if you have suggestions, especially if you can offer crash space, let me know. I don’t mind driving to just about anywhere, especially as I get better about voice writing while driving, but I’d rather spend my money on Patrick’s art than hotel rooms.

That’s enough for now. I owe you all an NFL prediction post.

I’m baaack

Sorry for the long delay since posting. I should have a chance to be more consistent until the next deadlines happen.

I can report that I have sent The Eyes of a Doll to my editor and alpha readers. I’m late because of Lilies and Pennsic this year, but I think I’ll be able to recover and get it published in early December. My goal is to have paper copies by Kris Kinder, Calontir’s shopping event the second Saturday of December. For that to happen, I need to have the book finished by 30 November at the latest, so expect to see the e-book on Amazon somewhere around then.

This journey is a process and, not surprisingly, has been filled with a few potholes. I’m learning though, and am encouraged by the future.

I have a good start to the 3rd book in the Shijuren world, and will have that draft finished by about the same time as I publish The Eyes of a Doll.

The 3rd book is about Ludmilla, though I’m thinking I’m changing her name because Ludmilja seemed the perfect name for a character in The Eyes of a Doll. This book is not set in Achrida, but starts in Periaslavl and will explore the Kreisen. It’s goal for release date will be 1 April.

I’m already planning the 4th book in Shijuren. This one will focus on a Reader learning more than he wanted to learn. I’ve been waffling on where I want to set it, so I haven’t named him yet.

That’s enough for now, expect some football posts this week. Cowboys-Giants on the 13th cannot come soon enough.

A Full LibertyCon AAR

Last year, I went to my first LibertyCon because of the list of attendees from Baen Books. This year, I attended because of the fun I had last year. I’m going next year and from now one because of the fun this year.

It’s a decently long drive for me, over 11 hours. I did most of that drive on Wednesday, reaching  Sam and Talina’s house in Marietta 8ish. I suspect I’ll make this the standard plan in the future if they don’t mind. This allowed me to hang out some while recovering from the drive.

Thursday, I made the drive back up to Chattanooga heading initially for the Kinko’s. I had new business cards made up to replace the ones I left at home. I left them in a place where I could not possibly miss them when I walked out of the door. Sigh. I’m good at that.

Anyway, I checked into the hotel on Thursday and was almost immediately invited to the Thursday night party by Gary. This was laid back, but there was some good conversation and I met a number of interesting people. Laid back was all I really wanted, and I went to bed at midnight, very pleased with the start of the Con.

Friday was productive. I spent the morning hanging around outside the art and dealer’s room, meeting some new people and reconnecting with some I’d met before. I sat with Jason Cordova and let him recruit me onto the HMS Wolverine, slated for imminent recommissioning. He introduced me to Jasmine deGroot, another crewmember, who has a twisted sense of humor like his and mine.  I suspect I’m going to really enjoy being a part of Commodore Cordova’s squadron.

Jody Lynn Nye led a world-building workshop that might have been scheduled for two hours, and for next year should be scheduled for two hours. She listed some interesting points about the influences of geography and culture in world-building that made me think.

Then we started making up a world on the fly. Some of the ideas were frankly a bit silly, but for a workshop, making some of the silliest ideas work is probably a good thing. Unfortunately, we had to stop just when we got going well.

My next big event was the Keeping Track of Your Money panel of indie authors. My eyes were opened, but I don’t think I can truly implement all of their advice. Doug Dandridge can apparently publish a book for less than $100. I just don’t think I can publish effectively without editing help, major editing help. Maybe someday, but right now I am too much of an academic and I write too much in Rob-ese.

However, I may have to reconsider my cover art. I really like what Patrick McEvoy did for A Lake Most Deep, but he may just be too expensive. I will have to play around with numbers for The Eyes Of A Doll, my next book.

Then I sat in the Short Story or Novel panel. I’m definitely a novel writer, but I do see how I can expand my sales and my publicity with short stories. What’s embarrassing is that I wrote several this past year, including a couple of 1632-verse ones, that I just need to finish. September I think on finishing and submitting those.

I followed that up with the Indie Marketing Panel. I got a bunch of ideas that I need to follow up on. First and foremost is to be more active here and to expand my internet presence. I’ll probably add a Google Plus page and start tweeting. I am a private person and I tend not to like to put myself and my thoughts out there. However, it’s part of the job.

There were a number of interesting panels after that, but my brain was full and I needed food and recharge time before the recommissioning of the Wolverine. The SCA ceremony geek in me wants to increase the ceremony involved in these sorts of things, but it’s probably more accurate to have a small ceremony followed by socializing.

In any case, I received one of the highlights of the Con, a picture of all involved in the TRMN at the ceremony. Jason insisted that as I was enlisting I joined them. I’m really glad he did because I now have a picture with both me and David Weber in the same group. Naw, I’m not a complete fanboy. I’ll just be in the corner squeeing quietly.

I then spent much of the rest of the evening floating from conversation to conversation and eventually closed down the Con Suite. They really have an amazing Con Suite at LibertyCon. Next year, I may make some pies or something to contribute.

In any case, I went to bed at a time not terribly late, but definitely not early. I got to sleep somewhere around 2:30am, meaning that most of the panels in the morning were not as interesting as they might have been. I essentially got up on Saturday morning solely in time to eat at the Luncheon Banquet.

This was a hoot. Howard Tayler is hilarious, which of course you already knew from reading Schlock Mercenary. They had old science fiction and fantasy books at each table and I went directly to the table with Heinlein’s Space Cadet. While I will always make the same choice, given the other options, that table was in the absolute front and four of the chairs were empty as they were just too “in front” to be prime spots. Though I enjoyed chatting with the people at my table, I would have enjoyed having a full table more.

Nevertheless, I’m definitely adding the banquet to my yearly purchase list.

Then I went to the Baen Traveling Slideshow and Prize Patrol. While I essentially know the entirety of the Baen catalog by heart, I really enjoy seeing and hearing the authors and Toni Weisskopf adding stories and extra tidbits. They give away a goodly amount of swag too. Even though there’s very little that they give away that matches my personal preferences, I really appreciate the amount of stuff they give away. Now if I can only steal…, I mean, acquire legally some of the big posterboards of their book covers that they display at these slideshows. If they all magically disappear one day, I guarantee I didn’t do it… that anyone can prove.

I then did my turn around the dealer’s room and the art show. In general, I don’t buy much, but I had to buy the Grumpy Cat DMing TShirt.

Most of the rest of the afternoon and evening involved lounging and chatting. Quite pleasant.

Later on I went in and watched them demoing Munchkin: Steampunk. I’m totally getting this version, it’s all the whimsy of the Munchkin with twice the gears. I basically sat there and heckled, which all of the players accepted good-naturedly. A really fun relaxed time.

This was capped off with Steve Jackson joining us at the end. They were packing up, but he passed out a bunch of swag. I got my prize of the Con. One of the swag pieces was a blank Munchkin card that simply said “Go Up A Level.” I immediately said to Steve, this has to have a reason. So he signed it. I can’t wait to play that card and shout “Because Steve Jackson Said So, Bitches!”

I went to bed around 1ish, anticipating a long day on Sunday. I think next year, though, I am going to stay for Sunday night and close the Con down right. I’d like to get to know the staff and locals better, they seem like hoopy froods.

Sunday started with the Kaffeeklatsch. I lucked out and happened to sit at David Weber’s table. We chatted on a variety of things, and I was able to ask about the Starfire universe.

I’m not the biggest fan of the game Starfire out there, but I’ve got to be nationally ranked. It was wonderful to hear him chat about his plans and where that’s going now. I guess Chuck Gannon is running that universe now with Steve White. I should reach out to him and see if he’s interested in auditioning another author in that universe. That game is the reason I became a David Weber fan in the first place in something like 1984, and it would be a huge honor to write some stuff set from the perspective of the Tabbies.

Then I watched Family Feud between the Hoyts and the Williamsons. It was even sillier than the TV show, but a lot of fun. I will forever treasure the memory of Sarah Hoyt demanding “Who Did You Poll!?!”

I then sat in the tail end of Sam Flegal’s presentation. He was the artist guest of honor, and he specializes in intricate interpretations of Norse themes. I managed to score a signed copy of the LibertyCon artwork, and I doubt that’s the last thing of his I’ll get.

Celebrity Jeopardy, where the questions are made up and the points don’t matter! They had three of the Con celebrities play Jeopardy using answers relevant to Con and panelist interests. Unfortunately, the Jeopardy game they had was difficult to use, and points weren’t always credited correctly. By this I mean, points were credited correctly at least twice. Still, I’m going to watch it again this year.

Then came Closing Ceremonies. One thing they do really well at LibertyCon is encourage comments, and they subtitle this “Let’s Bitch at Brandy.” I had a couple of small suggestions to the really excellent Android app for LibertyCon. There were lots of other suggestions. Lots and lots. Some of them deserving of attention. Brandy kept smiling. They really do have a good staff.

Of course, nothing can be perfect. One of the things that was striking to me is the difference between SCA people and Con people as a whole. Obviously this is a major generalization of two related bell curves, but I was distressed by how much trash was left on tables in the Con Suite. I get forgetting things, but it was clear that many groups of people simply assumed a member of the Con Suite would pick up their trash.

Yes, they were right, members of Con Suite did pick up their trash, but in my mind they should not have had to.  I’ve never seen the food court at Lilies, Gulf, Pennsic, or Estrella have as much trash simply left for others to deal with. I felt both proud of my SCA side and ashamed of my Con side.

I didn’t feel comfortable mentioning my reaction then as I’m still a relative newcomer, though I probably should have. Maybe next year at the “Bitch at Brandy Session” I’ll challenge everyone to pick up after themselves. The Con Suite people worked their tails off to provide free food and drinks to 700 plus people. We should pick up after ourselves and not add to their already huge workload.

Despite this, LibertyCon is now on my permanent schedule. I’ll pre-register before I leave every year, because it’s capped at 700 attendees. They do this to keep the family atmosphere, and it really is a good atmosphere.

You leave the Pennsylvania station ’bout a quarter to four
Read a magazine and then you’re in Baltimore
Dinner in the diner, nothing could be finer
(Then to have your ham and eggs in Carolina)

When you hear the whistle blowin’ eight to the bar
Then you know that Tennessee is not very far
Shovel all the coal in, gotta keep it rollin’
(Whoo whoo, Chattanooga, there you are)

See you next July, Chattanooga.

Busy Time

Greetings all

It’s been a very busy time here in Robland. I am the event steward for Lilies War, a big SCA event in Calontir. That is happening this week and I’m playing a little hooky to get some other things done.  Fortunately, my co-steward and event staff don’t really need me anymore.

The big news here, though, is the arrival of A Lake Most Deep in paperback form on Amazon at:
http://www.amazon.com/Lake-Most-Deep-World-Shijuren/dp/0996125914/ref=sr_1_1_twi_2_pap?ie=UTF8&qid=1434217490&sr=8-1&keywords=rob+howell

Enjoy. For me, I’m back to the war and being a big, bad boss.

Ah, Deflategate

I suppose as a football fan I should have an opinion.

I guess what makes me laugh at this the most is that there’s no story, and no real punishment, if Tom Brady simply says, “Yeah, I told them to make the footballs how I like them, like every QB does. I messed up and told them the wrong PSI. It’s totally my mistake. I apologize, and it won’t happen again.”

Poof.

It’d be discussed about a day or two, and Tom’s seen as an upright guy who was simply participating in a time-honored tradition of trying to get any advantage on the field.

If there’s a penalty, it’s no more than $25,000.

But no, he has to clam up, hide the relevant texts, and generally act like an arrogant jerk. That’s why he’s getting 4 games and the Patriots are losing picks.

Some people have said they would not give over their cell phone for everyone to prowl through. I agree with that. However,  what Wells asked for was to have them all sit in a room, Wells to ask questions, and for Tom and his representatives to look through the texts for anything relevant. This is not a case of giving over everything on his phone.

I also saw Tom Brady’s response at the Salem St. speaking tour just after the Wells report. I think I speak for every non-Patriots fan in saying that he came across as arrogant. I suspect even a percentage of Patriots fans felt the same way.

On the heels of all sorts of other times the Patriots have skirted the rules, I’m not surprised that the NFL decided to hit them hard.

 

Today’s Tom Sawyer

In a few hours, I will be in the Scottrade Center getting ready to watch Rush. This will be something like 24-25 times for me. More than many, but nowhere close to a few.

This may be their last tour, and while I am saddened to hear this, I completely understand. Every single Rush concert I have seen has been tremendous. I’m not simply saying this because of my pro-Rush bias, but also because I’ve seen a goodly number of concerts now. Others may have a few songs that are better for live shows, but no one ever consistently puts out such a powerful show top to bottom.

They give us everything they got, both on the night of the show and in preparation. It’s no surprise that at their age, they just can’t give out that energy over a tour like they could when we were all much younger.

Part of the reason is that, unlike many rock stars, Geddy, Alex, and Neil have never taken themselves too seriously. They have taken their skill and their art extremely seriously, but not themselves.

They’ve also played their own music, and was glad when a bunch of us liked it. However, they’ve never made music for us, rather, they made music that they liked and which challenged their skill. That’s why there’s no one really like Rush. Oh, Dream Theater has its Rush-like moments. Triumph was seen as Rush-lite at one point. Metallica and others have acknowledged their debt to Rush. But, no one else ever captured that same independence, intelligence, and brilliance.

I’ve grown up to Rush. When I struggled in high school, Subdivisions and Tom Sawyer helped me make it through. I listened to Countdown after the Challenger exploded. I read Coleridge and Rand and a bunch of others because of Rush. I’ve never been “normal,” and I knew they weren’t either. They helped me realize normal is a chimera, a mythical beast that can only bring bad things whether or not you track it down.

I’ll never forget hearing One Little Victory live for the first time. This was the tour that many of us, including Rush themselves, wondered if it would ever happen. Neil had lost his daughter and then his wife in a six-month period, and music just wasn’t important to him. But then Vapor Trails came out, and One Little Victory spoke directly to overcoming that loss. I am weeping as I am writing my memory of Rush pouring that emotion out to us at Molson Amphitheatre in Toronto.

I plan on seeing them again in Kansas City. Tonight may be my penultimate Rush show. Ask me in July after the KC show how I feel about that.

What I feel about tonight, though, is great excitement. Time to go watch them make the donuts.

Blogging History

As you might have noticed, I’m not a particularly consistent blogger. I’m working on that, but it is not in my nature to do things every day.

That doesn’t mean that I haven’t put a goodly number of interesting things in my various blogs over the years, however. I was ecstatic to find that I could import my entire collection of LiveJournal posts into this blog. You’ll see that the entry list now stretches back to 2004 when I first dabbled.

I’m finding great enjoyment in reviewing what seemed important to me at those times, and there’s a great deal of introspection, especially during the walk in Wales after my second wife and I split. I’m getting a view into my own history, some of which seems almost as new to me as it does to you.

So, that means I should probably add what’s important to me to remember about today. I really enjoy the new Sienna. I just drove Missouri 94 from Jefferson City to the St. Louis area this morning. It’s a beautiful day, and that’s a curvy, twisty, beautiful road that generally runs between the Missouri River and the Katy Trail railbed.

One of these days I want to walk the entire Katy Trail in Missouri, and write about my experiences and the neat things around it. It’s some 250 miles, meaning it’s probably 3 weeks of walking. However, it’s generally easier than the Offa’s Dyke trail as it’s graded and graveled and relatively level. Heavenly.

I just finished a number of small projects related to Lilies XXIX. I don’t know exactly how things will go, but I’m looking forward to it and I think people will have fun.

I may not have done much right in terms of Lilies, but I sure think I did really well picking people to work on it. They’ve done great, and there will be lots of fun to be had.

As for writing, I’ve been plowing through writing about Ludmilla. This book is much tougher to right since the character is so different from myself.  I’m learning lots, and I’m stretching myself, but it’s definitely challenging.

On that note, I suppose I better go write a scene or two.

Interesting Day

Greetings all

It’s been an interesting day, mostly in a good way.

I had to buy a dryer today, not necessarily a good thing, but because the owner made a mistake I got $100 off. I actually tried to split it with him, but he refused. That’s a good way to start our relationship, Stewart Appliances in Olathe.

A second bonus came in the form of La’el Collins signing with the Cowboys. I feel bad for the kid, who apparently did nothing wrong, but because of the timing of a the murder investigation of a former girlfriend, lost somewhere in the neighborhood of $5million.

In any case, he’s supposed to be a first-round talent at either guard or right tackle. The Cowboys already had probably the best offensive line in the NFL. Now they’re even deeper. Excellent.

Well, that’s enough dawdling. Back to writing.