2017 NFC East

2016 Finish: Dallas, New York, Washington, Philadelphia

Overall Notes: This is the best division in football and it’s no contest. Look at their DVOAs, with the highest being 9th. And I think all the teams might have gotten better. Sheesh. They’ll beat each other up and might prevent the others from getting into the wildcard, though I think at least one of the wildcards will come from here.

Dallas Cowboys
2016 Record: 13-3 (Pythagorean Wins: 11.0)

2016 Division Rank: 1st
2016 Injury Rank: 16th
2017 Age Rank: 17th
2016 DVOA Overall 2nd (O/D/ST):  (3rd / 18th / 9th)

This was a great team last year. It was one of the best offenses around, had an average defense, and played good special teams. There’s a lot of uncertainty, but this team could be even better if things break right.

The biggest question mark is the status of Ezekiel Elliott. I won’t comment on the case, other than to say I expect there to be an injunction tomorrow and the case taking all year. He may serve the suspension, but not until next year.

The offense is loaded. One of the question marks is whether Dak Prescott will have a sophomore slump. This is wishful thinking. People have tried to suggest that last year was a fluke, but there’s nothing in the statistics that suggests that to be true. He was not a dink and dunk QB, as shown by the length of his passes. He was one of the best at limiting interceptable passes. He made good decisions and attacked the defense successfully. That will continue.

The WRs are fantastic and deep. The RBs other than Elliott are pretty good. The TEs are solid. The offensive line has a couple of question marks but I think it’ll be even better than last year by the end of the year.

The defense is chock full of moving parts and questions. Many announcers see this and the lack of a star other than possibly Sean Lee, leading them to think this is a bad defense. It’s not. It’s average, but it can be even better. They lost a lot of snaps from last year’s team, but none of those snaps came from top tier players. They replaced them with young, unproven players and while they’ll make mistakes, they’ll do better at the end of the year.

I can see this defense be dominating, yes dominating, at the end of the year. I can also see it lose a game or two, especially at the beginning of the year where there are so many more question marks.

13-3 is hard to repeat though. I think the Cowboys will be better and finish with an 11-5 record. This will win the division and make them the 2nd seed.

Washington Redskins
2016 Record:  8-7-1 (Pythagorean Wins: 8.3)

2016 Division Rank: 3rd
2016 Injury Rank: 28th
2017 Age Rank: 15th
2016 DVOA Overall 9th (O/D/ST):  (5th / 25th / 13th)

The Redskins are the inverse of the Giants. It’s a great offense with Kirk Cousins and a number of excellent targets in Terrelle Pryor, Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed (if he can stay healthy). They run well enough, and I did not want them to get Samaje Perine. Trent Williams makes that line at least solid.

Will the defense improve? I think so, with additions like Jonathan Allen, Terrell McClain, Fabian Moreau, and Ryan Anderson. It won’t improve much, but get more in the 16th range. League average, in other words.

This was a good team last year. I think it’s better this year, especially since I think they’ll be healthier. I think they are definitely 10-6, maybe 11-5 and a wildcard team.

New York Giants
2016 Record:  11-5 (Pythagorean Wins: 8.8)

2016 Division Rank: 2nd
2016 Injury Rank: 7th
2017 Age Rank: 9th
2016 DVOA Overall 8th (O/D/ST):  (22nd / 2nd / 11th)

The only way I see this team dropping off is if Eli Manning does dramatically worse. I would actually be surprised, even though he’s 36. He was mediocre at best last year, anyway. The offense looks better than it is because of Odell Beckham, Jr. and some big plays. However, they’re very inconsistent and Manning threw 16 interceptions, which is bad but about his norm. The offensive DVOA reflects that. Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will help, but I doubt they’ll get any better in real terms.

However, the defense is young and great. I want to find a reason for the defense to take a step back. I can’t find it. They are on their downward curve, but closer to their peak than retirement. They may drop a bit, but only to 5th in defensive DVOA.

This team will do really well again. They’ll have a few more injuries than last year, I suspect, but at least 9-7. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re 10-6 and a wildcard team.

Philadelphia Eagles
2016 Record: 7-9 (Pythagorean Wins: 9.0)

2016 Division Rank: 4th
2016 Injury Rank: 4th
2017 Age Rank: 23rd
2016 DVOA Overall 5th (O/D/ST):  (20th / 4th / 2nd)

Ah, the Eagles. They’ve added some help on offense for Carson Wentz, but not as much as people think. I was not a fan of Wentz last year. He didn’t play as well as many people think, but he was very good for a rookie. I think he’ll be better, but I don’t see the offense improving much.

The defense was great and got a lot of help in the draft. I was not happy with their draft, though not all of it will arrive this year with Sidney Jones’s injury. Still, Derek Barnett and Rasul Douglas will add some youth to the defense.

The one place where I see the Eagles regressing is on Special Teams, and that’s in part because Darren Sproles is 34. He’ll fall of a cliff soon, though he’s been a fantastic player.

I think the Eagles will take an overall step back, but not by much. They’ll still have a 7-9 record or so, but that’ll match their Pythagorean.

Rob’s Update: Surviving the Dragon

Week of 3-9 September

Well, I survived DragonCon. I have an AAR up at: https://robhowell.org/blog/?p=798. The TL:DR version: the logistics of 80,000 people in downtown Atlanta limit the fun, but there’s still lots of fun to be had.

Now I’m back home, sorta. We found a house and put in a bid. In fact, I signed the accepted counter-offer while in Atlanta. We went through the inspection yesterday and, for a house built in the early 50s, it’s in fantastic shape. There are quibbles here and there, and a couple of things we’re going to ask from the sellers, but by and large, nothing we can’t fix.

Exciting times.

Now we just have to make sure the financing goes through correctly. I get there are reasons for all of this but man this process is frustrating.

As for writing, I’ve done a little here and there, but for the time being it’s going to be iffy. Between the move and planned trips, time has been an issue. I did manage to get a good start on a particular thread while at DragonCon, though.

Now, the time has given some ideas a chance to percolate, so it’s not been unfruitful. Also, I’ve come up with a good short story idea that I’ve been dabbling with. I can’t finish it until I get access to my books, which are currently packed up, though.

The big news next week is that my opportunity to be “And More” will arrive as For a Few Credits More will be released on the 15th. I’ll have a link for you next week.

Tonight, the NFL season starts. I’m so ready. I’ll be writing my NFL Preview during the game so expect that post late tonight.

Quote of the Week

I’m not a huge Neil Gaiman fan. Yes, I know that makes me a heretic. However, I do love this quote.

“Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.”
Neil Gaiman, Coraline

News and Works in Progress

  • New short story. It’s a secret 🙂
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Spotlight

While Van Allen Plexico let me have space at DragonCon, it was Brett Brooks and his wife Allyson who did much of the work manning the booth. You can find Brett’s Facebook author page here: https://www.facebook.com/brettbrooksauthor/. He has a fun and whimsical take on the Noir detective.

Let me know if you have any suggestions on the website, this email, or cool story ideas at rob@robhowell.org. Especially let me know of suggestions you have for the Spotlight section.

Have a great week, everyone.

Rob Howell
Author of the Shijuren-series of novels

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DragonCon AAR

Greetings all

I have survived my first DragonCon. It’s probably not my last one, but I have to have a good reason to go back.

Much of DragonCon is fantastic. Lots of incredible costumes. Lots of cool stuff to buy. Lots of interesting panels. Lots of celebrities. Lots of parties. All of this is great.

Thanks to the generosity of Van Allen Plexico and Brett Brooks, my books were on display in the Artists Alley section. None sold, but a bunch of bookmarks were given out. It can’t hurt, and since I didn’t actually pay anything it’s a net win.

I got to see several friends up for Dragon Awards. Some won, some lost, but it’s still cool to realize the quality of writers I’m earning a place among. I had a great time hanging out with Barflies. I should have actually spent more time with them and other writers and publishers.

The Hyatt House, where I stayed, had a fantastic staff, and my roommates, who I’d never met prior to Thursday, were all pleasant to deal with, even though five of us squeezed into a suite.

I gamed a lot, playing in four Pathfinder Society scenarios including two specials, which are a blast. I also played in an ad-hoc game on Thursday which was hilarious. I was the second to die. This will come as no shock but it was because my character couldn’t keep his mouth shut. I also played in some random games in the large gaming area. Cards Against Humanity is always fun, especially with the alcohol flowing, and DragonCon is one huge party.

But the execution of the event seemed oddly amateurish. As if this wasn’t the 30th time they ran this, but the first or second.

For example, I spent most of my time gaming once I figured out I wouldn’t be needed in a booth. I decided to play Pathfinder Society, and so I looked for PFS registration area. This was on the 2nd floor of America’s Mart Building 1, in the far corner, about as far from the entrance as could be.

That’s not necessarily a problem, but the directions on the boards and the app weren’t terribly clear, and the actual Pathfinder Society games were on the 1st floor of that building. There was room enough for the registration area to be in that same room, but for some reason they chose to put those tables up a floor on the other side of a big building.

Since the biggest complaint I have relates to traffic control, it will come as no surprise I look at this particular weirdness as emblematic of the con. All of those who wanted to just play Pathfinder Society could have been arranged in one particular area, but by setting things up as they did, it added congestion at the one set of escalators available.

Unfortunately, this was not the worst traffic control mistake they made. DragonCon runs along a ridge in downtown Atlanta. The hill is substantial, but there are walkways between buildings and other things that ameliorate such problems. Still, it’s not easy to get around, and climbing up and down that ridge can suck.

The vendors were all placed in the America’s Mart, Building 2, which  was a fine choice in many ways. It certainly had room enough. However, it was located at the far end of the con at the bottom of the ridge. Again, with walkways and such it’s not a big deal. Also, the main entrance was on the upper side of the building, which was closest to the other convention buildings.

But there was apparently a problem with this arrangement and in the middle of the con they suddenly shunted all access to the vendors to the downhill, farther side of the building. This meant you had to go up three extra sets of escalators. Oh, and those walkways? They closed them off.

Let me repeat. In the middle of the con they closed off all entrances to the building that held the vendors but the farthest, least convenient entrance possible.

All of the maps that said where to go to see the vendors became instantly wrong. Few of the people doing traffic control knew the exact directions. To get to the vendors, one had to hunt at the far end of the con to find the one way in.

This is again where the amateurish appearance comes to the forefront. It is not like they haven’t used these buildings before. It is, after all, the 30th time they’ve had this event in Atlanta. I get that it has grown and they’ve had to adjust, but it seems incredible to me that they couldn’t anticipate the traffic flow.

By comparison, GenCon, which is similar in size, manages all of this nicely. It’s busy and there are people everywhere, but you know where to go and they are much more efficient with their traffic flow.

I get it. I get that 80,000 people are hard to deal with. However, closing off all but one of the six or so available entrances to a huge building does not seem like a good answer to me. They also did this to America’s Mart Building 1, which held all of the gaming.

Clearly they could afford people to check badges at every door, because all of the closed entrances had people stationed there turning attendees away. No, for some reason, they were convinced that restricting access to one door on each of these two buildings would provide the most efficient traffic flow.

Given that I spent most of the con in these two buildings, I’m particularly frustrated by this. I will say, other parts of the con might have had better traffic flow, though it didn’t seem like it from what little I saw. I saw a lot of miscommunication amongst people working the con. Some confusion is to be expected, but not as much as I saw, especially related to traffic flow.

Again, I should emphasize that there was much to enjoy. Best cosplay con I’ve seen, no doubt. I really enjoyed the gaming that played.

But they do not seem to have a good handle on the logistics of 80,000 people. It’s a tough thing, alright, but other places have managed.

Perhaps the answer is to move DragonCon to Indianapolis, which could handle it just like it handles GenCon. Maybe there are solutions in Atlanta. I don’t know enough to even guess at solutions. What I do know is that their ConCom needs to figure that out.

Will I go back? Maybe. I’m inquiring on different room options and prices for next year to weigh the choice. I’m likely to go if I’m ever fortunate enough to be a finalist for a Dragon Award. I do have friends there I enjoy, including some new gaming friends.

There’s definitely fun to be had at DragonCon, but it’s an open question whether it’s worth the expense and hassle. We shall see.