Category Archives: Sports

Posts about Rob’s interests in sports.

Filling the Unforgiving Minute

Social media has been in many ways at its worst this past week because of the election. Lots of man-bites-dog stories, which in all actuality are minimal representations of what a country of 325 million is really about. If only we would report millions of dog-bites-man stories of people being decent to each other, we might realize there are fewer divisions than we think and more ways to resolve those we have.

Yesterday, though, there was a man-bites-dog story about a person acting with class and respect in a situation that many expected would cause strife. Yes, there’s frustration, pain, and anger as you will see, but none of it directed at the only people in reach, people who are not at fault.

What happened? Tony Romo came out and publicly accepted that he would be the backup quarterback to Dak Prescott for the Dallas Cowboys. Here’s the video.

Now, let’s get some perspective. Football is the ultimate team sport, and a failure by any player, coach, or front office guy can be the one thing that prevents a team from winning a Super Bowl. We know mathematically that games decided by 7 points or less are essentially coin tosses. Even the worst team in the NFL consists of talented world-class athletes, and the difference between the top and bottom is simply not much.

Watch  the Immaculate Reception (Google it, it’s a fun play to watch), and tell me if the ball hit the ground. The Steelers don’t win the Super Bowl that year if it did. But the referees said it did not, so Ken Stabler did not get elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame until after his death. An entire legacy hinged on a play that close. This sort of thing happens *every* year again and again.

It’s why we watch sports. The ultimate reality show, where people put everything they have into something and every time someone wins someone else loses.

And it’s why we care about the people, good or bad, justified or not, we care about the players.

Football is a ballet of 11 people moving in an intricate dance. If certain arm angles, foot placements, knee angles, and many other technical details are even an inch incorrect, it can mean the difference between victory and loss. There are a maximum of 20 games that matter in a season, and each one might be the one that shapes a season or a career.

Out of 32 teams, there’s only 1 Super Bowl winner. E pluribus unum, indeed.

Tony Romo will be criminally underrated unless he is the quarterback of a Super Bowl winning team, but for the bulk of Tony Romo’s career, the talent around him has been continually overrated. I can go for hours about that.

I can also talk about bad luck. Many remember the botched snap against the Seahawks in the playoffs, but don’t realize that the NFL had seen that happen a number of times that year and was already planning to change to a different ball for kicks because the ones they were using were too hard to handle. Then there’s the catch by Dez Bryant against the Packers in 2014. I can go on about that too.

I’ve watched him turn bad teams into average teams, average teams into good teams, and good teams into great ones. His results have been especially amazing since he wasn’t even seen as good enough to be drafted. 262 players were drafted in 2003. 13 of them were quarterbacks. 1 of them still plays, Carson Palmer, who is nowhere close to as good as Romo is.

There’s an advanced metric that correlates strongly to winning, it’s called ANY/A, or Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Basically, it penalizes the bad plays, credits the good plays, and comes up with a total. Tony Romo’s *career* ANY/A is 7.02, which is 5th all-time. Now he benefits from the era, but 5th puts him in the elite quarterback range of this era.

But he’s never had a great team around him.

I know the Cowboys went 4-12 last year, but for the first time in a while I had high hopes for this roster.They invested in the offensive line, giving the team the best one in the NFL. Ezekiel Elliot. A plethora of targets. A great offensive identity. They created a defense that was underrated, but more talented than many realize and designed to make up other talent deficiencies with hustle. A great kicker, perhaps the best in NFL history.

Last year was an aberration. Injuries yes, even more than this year, and there have been a ton of injuries this year too. But also a lot of bad luck, like 2-7 in close games and a league-worst fumble recovery rate, which is also a coin toss. A perfect storm of awful.

This year the luck has rebounded and the Cowboys have been a lucky team. The fumble rate is about average, but they’ve been 4-1 in close games. Can that continue? Not in the long term, but an NFL season is *not* long term. Remember it is, at most, 20 games.

This was to be Tony Romo’s year. After hundreds of hits, years of pounding, playing through a punctured lung, ignoring pain you or I cannot imagine, *this* was to be Tony’s year.

I had higher hopes for this year than any in recent memory, and the 8-1 record, though aided by some luck, validates that hope.

But it’s not been Tony’s year. He got hurt on an odd play with an injury medical professionals repeatedly insist had nothing to do with age, only the odd angle and timing of the play. Just a bad luck play for Romo, but it opened the door for Dak Prescott to take his place. To replace Wally Pipp in the sports lexicon with Tony Romo.

Don’t get me wrong, I was ecstatic when the Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott. I didn’t expect he’d be as good as he’s been so quickly, but I did have high hopes for him. And he’s been good, not as good as Romo as a quarterback, with a number of missed passes and reads and subtle mistakes, but he’s been just as good of a leader. And he’ll help us lift a Lombardi someday, maybe even this year.

Certainly, the Cowboys have played really well this year. 8-1 is a great record, and as Tony said, it’s not easy to do in the NFL. I’m especially pleased with the defense, though things will get tougher in the next few weeks because their strength has been depleted by repeated injuries in the defensive backfield. Still, this is a team that will be favored in most games for the rest of the year and justifiably so. This is a damn good team that can play anywhere.

But. It’s. Not. Been. Tony’s. Year.

As a writer, this is an amazing story. Tony is a tragic figure, one the gods seem to especially love to torture. They put his ultimate goal, a Super Bowl victory just within reach, only to snatch it away time and again. A Prometheus who brought the fire to the Cowboys and has been punished eternally by a vengeful Zeus.

As a fan, I’m watching that tragedy play out. I live and die by the Cowboys each week. I’ve had the pleasure of watching them with 4 Super Bowls, which is more than most fans of any sport can claim. I’ve also watched about 40 years where the didn’t win. I will always want the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl.

Yet I want to see Tony do it before Dak gets his. Tony is a *great* quarterback, better than a number of ones that will get into the Hall of Fame, and in a just world, he should be there eventually.

But it’s not a just world. If he is the quarterback for a Super Bowl winning team, he’ll be seen as one of the greatest ever. Without that Super Bowl win in the ultimate team sport, his legacy will be forgotten.

That would be a great shame.

Now that I’ve said all this stuff, go watch that video again. This is a man whose lifetime dream may elude him once again because of some fluke. *This* is the root of that pain and emotion in that speech. Because he knows. And yet, despite that, despite the eagle eating his liver, Romo stood up and took one for the team. As Mike Fisher, one of the reporters who cover the Cowboys said, “he threw himself on the quarterback controversy grenade.”

After all of this, I leave you with Kipling, the third stanza in particular.

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son.

Tony has filled his unforgiving minute with sixty seconds’ worth of distance run and more.

 

World Fantasy Con AAR

Greetings all

I’m mostly recovered from the drive back from World Fantasy Con. In all honesty, it was a fairly easy drive, helped by the fact that the tough part of the drive consisted of the Cowboys v. Eagles game on the radio so I was never close to falling asleep. Ranting in frustration a few times, yes, but never sleepy.

Oh, by the way, 6-1 and a 2-game lead in the NFC East is not something I predicted for this team, especially when Tony went down with injury. But I sure will take it.

Anyway, back to World Fantasy Con. I’ll probably do a real football post later.

First, I want to thank my friend Mary for giving me a place to stay over the weekend. Much as I prefer to stay at the hotel for extra chances to socialize, it’s can get so expensive.

I knew I would not get enough sales at the con to pay for the trip, which was correct, but I did get to talk to a bunch of new people and added quite a few to my mailing list. Bit by bit, I’m reaching out.

I moderated two panels, one on fantasy in the American heartland and then the impact of George RR Martin on fiction. These panels went really well. I don’t know that we discovered anything earth-shattering or surprising, but we covered the topics well enough that I received quite a few compliments on the panels in general and my skill in moderating as well. I actually really enjoy moderating panels so I hope that helps me get a reputation so I get more opportunities to moderate.

Because I was in the Dealer’s Room most of the time, I did not do a ton of socializing, except for those people who chatted with me at my table. I barely partook of any of the rest of the con, which is one reason I will probably not get a table at a World/World Fantasy Con again. The other reason, of course, is cost. They’re some of the most expensive cons around in terms of dealer tables.

I’d like to tell all of you more about World Fantasy Con, but in truth that’s pretty much all I can talk about. I was either at my table or in a panel, with a little socializing in the bar when I could afterwards.

Overall, though, I would have to say it was worth the time and effort. I did get to meet quite a few people. To a great extent, that’s the whole purpose of cons is to meet people and get my name out there. And that’s what I did.

 

Weekly Update: A National Holiday

Greetings all

I’ve had a productive week, though not necessarily with all of the things I had intended to do. Saturday I did a reading at the Kansas Authors Club meeting. Had a great time. You can find my AAR on my blog at: https://robhowell.org/blog/?p=447. Of course, Sunday was for me a national holiday, the first full Sunday of the NFL. While I was disappointed in the Cowboys loss against the Giants, I can take solace in the quality play from Dak Prescott. He looks very impressive.

Quote of the Week

This week’s quote is particularly apt, given that had the Cowboys had 3 more seconds, they might very well have one the game.

“We didn’t lose the game; we just ran out of time.”
– Vince Lombardi

Works In Progress
– Worked on making a list of future events and ensuring I was added to their panels.
– I am also making progress on the next Edward novel, which will be called Where Now the Rider. Tentative release date is 30 November.

 News
– The updated electronic version of The Eyes of a Doll is now live on Amazon. If you already own it, you can add wiki links by contacting Amazon at http://www.amazon.com/clicktocall (phone) or http://www.amazon.com/clicktochat
(chat).
– I’ve been working on some new events to attend. I can confirm I’ll be at Time Eddy in Wichita from October 14-16.
Upcoming Events
– Morning 10 September: Reading at Corinth Library, 8100 Prairie Village, Kansas for the Kansas Author’s Club from 9:30am to 1pm.
– Afternoon10 September: King’s Company of Archers in Smithville, MO
– 16-18 September: Dodecacon in Columbia, MO
– 23-25 September: Gryphon’s Fest in Warrenton, MO
– 30 September – 2 October: Kansas Author’s Club convention in Lawrence, KS
– 8 October: Calontir Fall Crown in Omaha, NE

– 14-16 October: Time Eddy in Wichita, KS

Spotlight
I’m adding a new feature to my email. Here I’ll be including a link to someone or something I think is cool. This week I’m pointing you at the Kickstarter that my artist, Patrick McEvoy, is working on. As you know, I think he’s a fantastic artist and he’s lending his talents to another noir-themed mystery, this one a graphic novel that blends Cthulhu with Raymond Chandler and Dashiell Hammett. You can find more info at:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/309827462/casefile-arkham-her-blood-runs-cold?ref=project_tweet

Let me know if you have any suggestions on the website, this email, or cool story ideas at rob@robhowell.org.

Have a great week, everyone.

Rob Howell
Author of the Shijuren-series of novels
Website: www.robhowell.org
Blog: www.robhowell.org/blog
Shijuren Wiki: http://www.shijuren.org/World+of+Shijuren+Home
Facebook Author Page: https://www.facebook.com/robhowell.org/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Rhodri2112

Currently Available Works
A Lake Most Deep (Edward, Bk 1)
The Eyes of a Doll (Edward, Bk 2)
I Am a Wondrous Thing (The Kreisens, Bk 1)

Weekly Update Archive

More Than Three Toes

I’ve been a sloth since I got back from the trip. I’ve written hardly at all, though I’ve puttered through a number of projects for Pennsic. I think it’s a normal neap tide after a 25-day trip, though I know there are other factors.

My birthday was last week. I turned 48. I survived the day. That might sound sarcastic, but a good friend of mine turned 48 on June 22nd and did not survive the day. I also had a guy I’ve looked up to for over 30 years also pass away recently. The last day of LibertyCon held both of their memorials. What a strange day. Exciting in many ways, but hard. It might be that my sadness from their deaths has stripped me of motivation, but if so, that’s a horrible tribute to both of them.

The truth is that while there’s no major news in my world, things have been going generally well. I have some irons in the fire that might or might not pan out, but we’ll see. Just having these ideas is a great start.

I am starting to get excited about Pennsic. I’ll do a pre-Pennsic post next week. I am upgrading my SCA furniture, which has needed some refurbishing. In particular, I’m replacing a couple of 6-board chests that have seen better days.  At Trillium War I was pleased with how smoothly my setup went, and it will be getting better. I also have a couple of cool ceremonial things happening at Pennsic.

Football season is also on the horizon, as training camps start in about a week. I’ll review my predictions from last year and make my predictions for this year. Injuries killed my Cowboys last year, more than most of you know about, and if they return to simply average luck, the Cowboys will be better than many people think.

I’m also excited about some of my ideas for Where Now the Rider, which while I’ve not been writing it, I have been letting it percolate in my mind. By the end of this novel Edward will be settled in Achrida fully, but it won’t be easy.

I’ve got some SCA things happening, too. I’ve a project that I’ve wanted to start for some time that will commence after Pennsic. I’m sure I’ll talk about it more later on.

The other good news is that I see myself flowing back up from the ebb. Writing this blog post is a definite sign of that. When I’m down I tend to become a hermit crab. In fact, it’s time to get working on something else. Have a great day everyone.

 

 

Random Musings

  • I’m learning so much about how to write each day. I’m editing A Lake Most Deep for the second edition release and I shake my head at the progress I’ve made.
  • Many thanks to Kellie for taking the time to tell me why something is right or wrong, helping me make fewer mistakes, write better, and also find times to break the rules for effect, not ignorance
  • A Lake Most Deep, v2.0 will be a vast improvement but won’t seriously change anything, for those who’ve read it before. It’s mostly better formatting and a better working relationship with my editor. Beth, who edited it the first time, did a fine job, but I still do not really know her. I’ve known Kellie for years and that is a great help to me. Much more collaborative.
  • I’m facing some technical challenges to the big thing I want to announce, so it is delayed, but still coming. I want it to be right before putting it out there.
  • I’ve not liked the NBA for a long time. Frankly, it’s boring basketball, and I’ve long since enjoyed soccer so much more than basketball because it’s more exciting in general. Steph Curry is changing that for me. He might very well be the most skillful basketball player ever. Not the most dominant, that is Wilt Chamberlain, but the most skillful. He has changed the game in a way we’ll only fully understand in retrospect.
  • All that being said about basketball, the one and done format of March Madness, especially on opening weekend, is truly one of the best things ever.
  • I really hope Ron Baker and Fred van Vleet have one more great run in them. Obviously I mean that because I’m a Wichita State fan, but also because I think they’re great kids.
  • I am looking forward to Gulf Wars, and in some ways I’m more excited than I have been in several years. However, it’s becoming more and more an afterthought to…
  • Ealdormere Coronation and Ad-Astra. I’ll be on panels at Ad-Astra, with maybe a reading. That all is a huge step up for me. I’m also going to swing by my grandparents house in Teeswater, which is fairly close to Underwood and Coronation. I’m also contemplating doing something stupid, and going around the Great Lakes. I know it’s much longer, but there’s so much to see.
  • The NFL draft talk is approaching. People keep talking about what Dallas should do, so I will too. Dallas should trade pick 4 for something like pick 8-10 in 2016 plus a 1st in 2017 and some others. The draft chart numbers work for this. The question is whether the Cowboys should take a QB (my preference is Carson Wentz) as a successor to Romo or get better players to surround him. This way you get better players *and* put the Cowboys in position to get a successor next year.
  • Rob’s rule of thumb when trading high picks. Always trade down. More picks means a better chance to get a productive player.

Off to go through a car wash on a lovely day.

2015 Season Overview

Well, it’s time for my overall predictions. This, by the way, is the TL:DR page. You can find my detailed discussions at my divisional breakdowns.

Here are my divisional breakdowns
NFC East: 2015 Prediction
NFC North: 2015 Prediction
NFC South: 2015 Prediction
NFC West: 2015 Prediction
AFC East: 2015 Prediction
AFC North: 2015 Prediction
AFC South: 2015 Prediction
AFC West: 2015 Prediction

NFC by seed
1: Seattle (NFC West Champion)
2: Dallas (NFC East Champion)
3: Green Bay (NFC North Champion)
4: Tampa Bay (NFC South Champion)
5: Philadelphia (Wildcard 1)
6: Minnesota (Wildcard 2)

Wildcard Round
Green Bay beats Minnesota
Philadelphia beats Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Seattle beats Philadelphia
Dallas beats Green Bay

NFC Championship
Dallas beats Seattle

AFC by seed
1: New England (AFC East Champion)
2: Denver (AFC West Champion)
3: Baltimore (AFC North Champion)
4: Houston (AFC South Champion)
5: Kansas City (Wildcard 1)
6: Miami (Wildcard 2)

Wildcard Round
Miami beats Baltimore
Kansas City beats Houston

Divisional Round
Kansas City beats Denver (you’re welcome, Snorri)
New England beats Miami (sorry, Marty)

AFC Championship
New England beats Kansas City

Super Bowl
Dallas beats New England

Yeah, I think this Cowboys team is that good. I may be too close to the team, but it’s the deepest I’ve seen it since the early 90s.

It’s clear to me that the NFC is the deeper of the two conferences, at least in terms of great teams. The NFC South is wretched at the moment, but all the other divisions have potentially great teams.

As a side note, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Detroit, Carolina, and Arizona are all 2014 playoff teams that I think will miss the 2015 playoffs. This is about right, given that around 5.7 teams don’t go back the following year after making the playoffs.

As for last year, I did pretty good. I picked 3 of the 8 divisions exactly right. I picked the division winners in 2 others, and in another case I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard. My only really bad prediction was Tennessee. The other division I struggled with was the NFC North, and I was not the only one.

In terms of playoffs, I predicted Seattle to win, and I was damn close to being right.

As I said last year, there are 255 games remaining in the season. Let’s get this going.

2015 NFC East

NFC East (2014 Finish: Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins)

Overall: Another division where I predicted the eventual winner correctly. This despite no one thinking the Cowboys would win more than 6 games.

My only mistakes were thinking that the Redskins would see some improvement and that the Giants would regress. Neither happened.

Dallas Cowboys
2014 Record: 12-4 (Pythagorean Wins: 10.8)
2014 Division Rank: 1st (My prediction: 1st)
2014 Injury Rank: 19th
2015 Age Rank: 14th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 6th (4th / 22nd / 13th)

I said last year that this team only needed their defense to be in the 20th range to be a 10-6 team. I was exactly correct, especially if you look at their Pythagorean record. They were lucky to win 12 games, but still were the best team in the division.

Their biggest loss in the offseason was DeMarco Murray. Make no mistake, he’s a very good RB. However, he was not a great RB despite leading the NFL in yards gained rushing. How can this be? Because he was used a ton. If you rush way more often than anyone else behind a great OLine you’re going to lead the NFL in yardage.

He can be replaced and he will.

This offense is loaded. They have a great QB, a bunch of targets, and a deep and good OLine. They’ll end up around the same spot in offensive DVOA.

There are major changes to this defense and it’s all on the DLine. Their best pass rusher was hurt most of last year, and he’s back. Randy Gregory has looked really good, as has Greg Hardy who’ll be there for 12 games. Add in Tyrone Crawford who is being tabbed for the Pro Bowl and a variety of talented backups tells me this will be a much better line.

Yes, they lost their best CB, but they got their best LB back who they lost all last year. I see major improvements in this defense, up to something like 10th in the NFL.

That being said, I think this team will only win 11 games because their schedule is tougher this year.

They were lucky in their Pythagorean record and that will regress to the norm, but they weren’t lucky in terms of injuries and this is not an old team. Yes, I’m a Dallas homer, but in my opinion, this is still the best team in the division.

Philadelphia Eagles
2014 Record: 10-6 (Pythagorean Wins: 9.7)
2014 Division Rank: 2nd (My prediction: 2nd)
2014 Injury Rank: 5th
2015 Age Rank: 28th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 7th (13th / 10th / 1st)

People are predicting the Eagles could go to the Super Bowl. They think that the additions of Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Nelson Aglohor to an offense with a damn good OLine, Darren Sproles, and Jordan Matthews will be amazing.

I don’t see it.

Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez weren’t bad last year. Sam Bradford has never been great, certainly not major upgrades to either of those two. Could he be? Yes. This could be a perfect fit, and he could massively exceed his previous production, but he’s in his 5th year and that is unlikely.

I see the the same thing for RB and WR. LeSean McCoy is a fantastic RB. Will Murray be that much better? I doubt it. Same for Jeremy Maclin. Aglohor will be good, but significantly better?

Plus, they had two of the best guards in the NFL last year in Todd Herremanns and Evan Mathis. Their OTs and their center are very good, but these two will not be replaced easily.

This was a slightly better than average offense last year. I think they’ll improve, but will they be the best in the NFL? I don’t think so.

Their defensive front is very good. I can see some improvement here, but it depends on if their defensive backfield, which was wretched last year, can improve.

However, I see a major dropoff in their special teams. They were amazing last year and had a ton of returns. TD returns tend to be fluky. They will have some regression to the mean.

Plus this is a team that has had 2 years of really good luck with injuries. It is more likely than not that they’ll have some injury problems this year.

Overall, I think they’ll be a little better, but still in the 10-6 range. They’ll be one of the wildcard teams.

New York Giants
2014 Record: 6-10 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.5)
2014 Division Rank: 3rd (My prediction: 4th)
2014 Injury Rank: 32nd
2015 Age Rank: 25th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 21st (15th / 25th / 15th)

This is a better team than I expected, and better than their 6-10 record. Part of that is no one quite realized how good Odell Beckham, Jr. really is. Like that was one of the best rookie seasons a WR has ever had. Forget ‘The Catch,’ look at the rest of his season and you’ll be amazed. He’s gonna suck to play against year after year.

Despite him, this was an average offense. I predicted their OLine would give them trouble and it did. I predict their OLine will continue to hamper this offense. Eli Manning has proven, year after year, that he is hampered by pressure more than most QBs. He makes up for that for being more efficient than most in clean pockets. They did draft Ereck Flowers, but I’m not sold on him. We’ll see.

My expectation is that Beckham will have an even better year, and this team will hit a bunch of homers. However, they’ll not sustain many drives and end up being average again.

Last year I predicted Jason Pierre-Paul would return to glory and this defense would be much better. I was sort of right. He had a very good year, but there were still a lot of holes. Now we have no idea what he’ll be able to do after blowing off his index finger on July 4th.

This was an unlucky team in 2014. They finished 1.5 games below their Pythagorean record and were 32nd in the NFL in terms of injuries.

Normally, I’d look at that and be optimistic for the team the following year. However, they’re fairly old. JPP is a major question mark. Victor Cruz has been iffy already. Their luck does not seem to be changing.

Washington Redskins
2014 Record: 4-12 (Pythagorean Wins: 4.5)
2014 Division Rank: 4th (My prediction: 3rd)
2014 Injury Rank: 24th
2015 Age Rank: 17th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 28th (28th / 27th / 29th)

What a model of consistency. Look at those DVOAs by group. Impressive, Washington, impressive.

And it’s not going to get better.

Could they have mismanaged the RG3 situation any more than they did? Unfortunately, I think RG3’s career is essentially over, though he’ll get another shot somewhere. Concussions will force him to retire soon, and I lay some of that blame on Jay Gruden.

Is Kirk Cousins a better QB than RG3? Maybe in this offense. I can’t see him being great, though. They’ll run some, but a decent OLine and Alfred Morris. Overall, this offense might improve some, but not much.

I don’t see the defense improving. Ryan Kerrigan is a useful supporting piece but not an All-Pro type player.

They haven’t drafted well of late either. I like Brandon Scherff, but they had better picks at that point in the draft, given that a 4-12 team is guaranteed to have a lot of holes.

4-12 is a good expectation here.

2015 NFC North

NFC North (2014 Finish: Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears)

Overall: This was probably my worst division last year, mostly because I thought the Lions weren’t as good as they ended up being. I also thought the Vikings would be better, but part of that was based upon Adrian Peterson playing, which of course did not happen.

Green Bay Packers
2014 Record: 12-4 (Pythagorean Wins: 11.2)
2014 Division Rank: 1st (My prediction: 1st)
2014 Injury Rank: 3rd
2015 Age Rank: 3rd
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 3rd (1st / 16th / 22nd)

If any team can lose a player like Jordy Nelson and march right on it’s the Packers. There are two big reasons for this. One, they draft WRs constantly, and Davante Adams will perform very well. Two, they have the best QB in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers.

With Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, and Adams behind a reasonable OLine, this team will be in the top 5 on offense again.

Now, it’s true that the Packers were lucky in terms of injuries last year, ending up ranking 3rd in the NFL last year. It’s likely that they’ll regress to the norm some, and that’s already started to happen with Nelson.

However, note also that the Packers are the 3rd youngest team in the NFL going into 2015. This is a team likely to finish in the top half of the league in terms of injuries and is still generally speaking climbing their career arcs.

I don’t see any reason to think they won’t end up 11-5 or better and winning a really good division.

Minnesota Vikings
2014 Record: 7-9 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.5)
2014 Division Rank: 3rd (My prediction: 2nd)
2014 Injury Rank: 8th
2015 Age Rank: 7th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 24th (22nd / 23rd / 10th)

The Vikings have been given a lot of love by the press lately, and it’s not hard to see why. They get Adrian Peterson back, and even though I think he’ll start fading soon, having a year off might mean the tread on his tires was refreshed somewhat.

More importantly though, is that Teddy Bridgewater is already a pretty good QB on the way up. Pro Football Focus picked him as one of the players on the rise because of his improvement over the latter part of the year. In his last 5 games, his QB Rating was 120.7, 117.7, 84.9, 114.1, and 90.2. That’s really good.

This is a team that’s not old, that has my 2nd favorite QB in the division, that has one of the best RBs in history aching to prove himself. They’ve got a few targets for him as well. This team will score, and will end up being around the 10th best offense in the league.

They also threw a bunch of draft picks at this defense. I think it will improve a little. Then you add one of the most explosive returners in Cordarrelle Patterson and their special teams will be at least in the top half again.

That’s the recipe for a 9-7, 10-6 team. They’ll be fighting with Arizona for a wildcard.

Detroit Lions
2014 Record: 11-5 (Pythagorean Wins: 9.2)
2014 Division Rank: 2nd (My prediction: 4th)
2014 Injury Rank: 15th
2015 Age Rank: 24th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 14th (19th / 3rd / 31st)

There are a lot of people on the Detroit bandwagon. Since I picked them last in the division last year, I’m clearly not sold on them and I’m still not on this bandwagon.

First of all, this team benefited from some luck, and was more of a 9-7 team than an 11-5 one. Second, this is not a young team. Third, I’m not a fan of Matthew Stafford. He puts up big numbers because they throw a lot and because Calvin Johnson is one of the best receivers in history (not quite as good as either Jerry Rice or Don Hutson in my opinion… yet).

In any case, the 19th ranking in offensive DVOA suggests that this offense was at best average, despite the presence of Stafford, Johnson, and Golden Tate. I really like Ameer Abdullah, and I see in him an RB with a few top notch seasons to come, but I can’t see this offense improving that much, if at all.

Unfortunately, the defense will not be as good, basically because Ndamukong Suh has left. They have some other good players on the DLine but you just can’t lose a player like Suh without having some dropoff.

This was a 9-win team that got lucky last year. This is a 8-9 win team this year. Sorry, Detroit fans.

Chicago Bears
2014 Record: 5-11 (Pythagorean Wins: 4.9)
2014 Division Rank: 4th (My prediction: 3rd)
2014 Injury Rank: 27th
2015 Age Rank: 19th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 26th (14th / 28th / 25th)

This is a bit of a train wreck. Their offense was average last year, but it will be much worse this year. Kevin White is hurt, so he can’t replace the production of Brandon Marshall. Worse, Matt Forte, who has been a fantastic player, is declining, as RBs do as they get to around 30.

Their defense might be a little better, as regression to the mean suggests they should be, but I see no reason to see a major improvement.

This team won 5 games last year. I’m hard pressed to think they’ll do any better and I could absolutely see this team winning 2 or 3 games and picking first.

2015 NFC South

NFC South (2014 Finish: Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay)

Overall: I did pretty good here, and was exactly correct when you look at Pythagorean record. Of course, when 0.4 separates the top 3 in a division, you know it’s a dogfight.

Unfortunately for NFL fans, the dogs in the fight are old and generally toothless. None of the teams finished in the top half of the NFL in DVOA and the top 3 teams are 3 of the oldest 4 teams in the NFL.

Last year’s train wreck is likely to happen again. The worst thing from my perspective is that I have no idea how this division will fall out. I think they’ll all be around 6-10 to 8-8, just like last year, except the Buccaneers will be markedly better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014 Record: 2-14 (Pythagorean Wins: 4.4)
2014 Division Rank: 4th (My prediction: 4th)
2014 Injury Rank: 23rd
2015 Age Rank: 11th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 30th (32nd / 18th / 17th)

Yeah, that’s right. I’m picking the Buccaneers to win this division. I said last year that this team was a QB away from being a good team. Then they went and drafted Winston and 2 OLinemen to protect him.

Their defense and special teams were average, and I think this team will be average on offense. That’s an 8-8 team. That will win this division.

And frankly there are other reasons to like this team. People are saying Doug Martin looks full speed again. If this is true, and if Mike Evans can come back to health, then Winston will have targets.

Plus, this is the only team on the rising side of the age curve in this division. None of the other teams will run away with this division and I think the other 3 will fade as the season goes on.

Atlanta Falcons
2014 Record: 6-10 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.1)
2014 Division Rank: 3rd (My prediction: 2nd)
2014 Injury Rank: 25th
2015 Age Rank: 30th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 20th (11th / 32nd / 9th)

I guess I’ll pick the Falcons next. They addressed their defense in the draft and it will be better. Probably something like 24th or so. Probably be a 7-9 team again, which is what they were last year in terms of Pythagorean wins.

They’ll score some with Matt Ryan at QB and Julio Jones at WR. Tevin Coleman will fit in nicely.

However, this is not a team to hang your hat on.

New Orleans Saints
2014 Record: 7-9 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.4)
2014 Division Rank: 2nd (My prediction: 1st)
2014 Injury Rank: 9th
2015 Age Rank: 29th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 17th (8th / 31st / 11th)

The Saints traded Jimmy Graham for Max Unger and drafted an OT to help the OLine. They needed to. This line, once one of the best, has gotten old but these two will help.

That means the offense will continue to be productive. They’ll still be one of the top 10.

Unfortunately, I don’t see any hope for the defense. There’s no real reason in my mind to be optimistic here.

So, yet again, we’re looking at a 7-9ish team.

Carolina Panthers
2014 Record: 7-8-1 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.0)
2014 Division Rank: 1st (My prediction: 3rd)
2014 Injury Rank: 6th
2015 Age Rank: 31st
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 25th (20th / 15th / 30th)

Could they have been better in 2015 than in 2016? Sure. In fact, I think that Cam Newton will be better this year than last. However, their best offensive player, Kelvin Benjamin, is gone for the season.

Luke Kuechly is an amazing player, possibly the best ILB in the NFL. I really like Star Lotulelei. This defense could be better. But I doubt it will be because of age. They’ll be average again.

Sorry, Tola, this is not a good team right now and needs a major overhaul. Still, they’ll win 6-7 games.

 

2015 NFC West

NFC West (2014 Finish: Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams)

Overall: I nailed this division not only in my rankings but in the reasons why. Let’s see how I do this year, when this division is not nearly so clear-cut.

Seattle Seahawks
2014 Record: 12-4 (Pythagorean Wins: 11.9)
2014 Division Rank: 1st (My prediction: 1st)
2014 Injury Rank: 18th
2015 Age Rank: 12th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 1st (5th / 1st / 19th)

It’s hard to have a dynasty in this day and age, but the Seahawks are doing a great job. Nevertheless, with all the turmoil of this offseason it’s safe to say the cracks are starting to show. The have benefited from Russell Wilson’s minimal salary cap hit, which has now passed. Other players are also looking to increase their salaries, and Kam Chancellor is even holding out. They’re also older than they have been over the last 4 years.

Despite such cracks, this team is still very good and will win a division that has regressed after being the best in the NFL.

The defense will fall off some, especially if Chancellor’s holdout is a long one, but will fall from being the best in the NFL to merely a great one in the 5th or so range.

The key to their offense in 2015, to me, is not the production of Jimmy Graham but that of Drew Nowak. Who? The Seahawks acquired Graham by trading away Max Unger, one of the top 5 centers in the NFL. Nowak is Unger’s replacement. Graham is a fantastic player, possibly the 2nd best TE in the NFL right now, but if Nowak plays poorly this offense will drop off.

Overall, I see this team dropping to 5th or 6th in the NFL in DVOA. Great, but not dominant. Still more than enough to win the NFC West, but maybe not to get home field advantage throughout.

Arizona Cardinals
2014 Record: 11-5 (Pythagorean Wins: 8.3)
2014 Division Rank: 2nd (My prediction: 2nd)
2014 Injury Rank: 17th
2015 Age Rank: 22nd
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 22nd (23rd / 7th / 21st)

This is a hard team to predict. They were extremely lucky, in terms of Pythagorean wins, but the discrepancy probably stems from their injuries at QB.

With Carson Palmer back, it’s hard not to look at this team and see a team that could very well win the division. There’s talent on the offense and it’s a good defense.

However, it has a huge Achilles heel. I do not like their offensive line. If they cannot protect Palmer then this team will regress to 9-7 or so and out of the playoffs. If they’re better than I think, then the race for the division will be decided Week 17 in Phoenix in a fantastic matchup between the Seahawk and the Cardinals, with the loser one of the wildcards.

I’m not optimistic, though.

Los Ang… er… St. Louis Rams
2014 Record: 6-10 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.1)
2014 Division Rank: 4th (My prediction: 4th)
2014 Injury Rank: 13th
2015 Age Rank: 1st
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 18th (27th / 9th / 7th)

Yeah, sorry about that, fans of the Rams. I think they’re almost gone. If it’s any consolation this is a team that has been mismanaged for years and I don’t see that changing.

I really do not like their pick of Todd Gurley at 10th in the 1st round. I’m not a big fan of drafting RBs in the 1st round anyway, and I think Zac Stacy and Tre Mason are pretty good.

Now, the did do something I really like. I’m a bigger fan of Nick Foles than I am of Sam Bradford. Bradford is probably more talented, but Foles has been pretty good while Bradford has not.

The real problem, though, with that 27th ranked offense is that none of their high-round offensive line draft picks have worked out well. They clearly know how to rank defensive line players, and Aaron Donald might be the best DT in the NFL this year, but their investments in the OLine have not paid off.

I see a moderate improvement in the offense to somewhere around 20th, and this team will probably be around 8 wins. Not enough to get inthe playoffs, but some progress.

San Francisco 49ers
2014 Record: 8-8 (Pythagorean Wins: 7.0)
2014 Division Rank: 3rd (My prediction: 3rd)
2014 Injury Rank: 28th
2015 Age Rank: 8th
2014 DVOA Overall (O/D/ST): 11th (16th / 5th / 24th)

Wow. I’m not a big fan of saying things like “this is the worst of something ever,” because that usually suffers from recency bias. However, it’s hard to think that this offseason has to rank among the worst ever for NFL teams.

Now, I will say that despite the losses of Patrick Willis and all the rest the front 7 will be better than most people think. However, this defense is going to seriously drop off to about average. The offense may pick up a bit of the slack, but I’m really not a fan of Colin Kaepernick.

This team will not fall off much, but they were luck to win 8 games last year, and I think 6-10 is their eventual result.