Tag Archives: NFL Draft

Rob’s Update: NFL Christmas

Week x of 2018

Tonight is NFL Christmas, otherwise known as the start of the NFL draft. Since perhaps my favorite reason to watch sports is to figure out how to make each team better and track prospects, this is one of my favorite weekends of the year.

If you follow me on Facebook, I’ll be doing a live commentary of my thoughts about the first round tonight. I’ll probably do it again tomorrow for the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Last weekend was Constellation in Lincoln. I meant to do a full AAR, but didn’t have time. To sum up, it was a good time. A longtime SCA friend offered me some dealer table space and I sold a couple of books. My three panels went well, and I made some new connections.

I also got my hands on a treasure in the charity auction. I’ll talk about that when the time is right.

This week I started ferrying loads from the storage unit down to Olathe. The goal is to get the storage unit emptied before the end of May, then do a big truck for everything in the house in June.

This process is not interfering with my writing, fortunately. I’m scheduling it so I have a good writing session at Brewbaker’s each way. Even so, it’s still taking about six hours, each trip, and if I have a con or event on the weekend, I’m missing some of my ancillary project time. For example, I didn’t get any work done on the Four Horsemen wiki, though I expect to do a bunch on Sunday.

Brief Is My Flame is going well. I was actually above 70k, but I cut some back because it didn’t flow right. Hopefully, that chunk will work for None Call Me Mother, but it may just be a random snippet that shows up down the road.

With that, I’m going to start focusing on football.

Current Playlist Song

I’m watching the draft tonight at Buffalo Wild Wings, which means I’m not really listening to anything I recognize. So I think I’m just going to mention one of my favorite songs, which is odd, because it’s simply the introduction of a TV event.

But the duh-duh-duh-duhhhh of the original Monday Night Football theme gets me rocking every time.

And yes, I do have the .mp3 in my playlist.

Quote of the Week

Today is the anniversary of William Shakespeare’s baptism, and I might just be able to find a quote or two from him. I chose this one because it also sort of reflects the story of the players that will get selected in the draft this weekend.

We know what we are, but know not what we may be.
– William Shakespeare

News and Works in Progress

  • TAV (2,007)
  • AFS (2,681)
  • Brief Is My Flame (69,280)

Recent Blog Posts and Wiki Additions

  • Not even an interview this week.

Upcoming Events

Spotlight

This week’s spotlight is on David L. Burkhead. You can find his Amazon page here: https://www.amazon.com/David-L-Burkhead/e/B005B4HLF2/. In the next week or so, he’ll be releasing the first book in a new series called Alchemy of Shadows. I had the pleasure of reading an advance copy of it, and I really enjoyed it.

Today’s Weight: 389.2

Updated Word Count: 1057

Shijuren Wiki: 756 entries

Four Horsemen Wiki: 314 entries

Let me know if you have any suggestions on the website, this email, or cool story ideas at rob@robhowell.org. Especially let me know of suggestions you have for the Spotlight section.

Have a great week, everyone.

Rob Howell
Currently Available Works

If you think you received this email incorrectly or wish to be unsubscribed, please send an email to shijuren-owner@robhowell.org

NFL Christmas Presents Opened

I meant to get to this sooner, but with finishing Where Now the Rider and Planet Comicon, I just haven’t had a chance. I also didn’t have a chance to the the Comicon AAR out earlier, so look at me, double-posting in a day. Go me!

Anyway, as a Dallas Cowboys fan I’ve been very happy with our drafting over the last few years. Much of that success can be given to Will McClay, who has proven himself an excellent talent evaluator.

Getting Dak Prescott in the 4th and having him turn out to be as good as he has been is a stroke of great fortune, but even so last year’s draft was excellent. Ezekiel Elliot looks all that was hoped, and both Maliek Collins and Anthony Brown look like quality starters from the 3rd and 6th rounds respectively. If Jaylen Smith and Charles Tapper can return from injury, than the 2016 draft will be one of the best ever in the NFL. That’s not hyperbole, actually. If one can get three quality starters in a draft, then you’ve had a good draft. This one currently has four, with a chance at more.

So I wasn’t expecting anything like that this year. However, this draft lined up with Dallas’s needs, defensive linemen and defensive backs and I am very pleased with the result because we came out of the draft with 7 players from those two areas.

For my whimsical write up, check my post on the best Dallas Cowboys website, Blogging the Boys: http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/2/15525582/rhodris-2112-pack-2017-draft. There I have an occasional series of 2112-packs, where I give out 12 aptly named beers to whoever strikes my fancy.

Overall, the draft is getting bigger and bigger, and for me, lots more fun. The more data there is out there, the more I research. Lots of fun stuff, especially when I see more of the moves getting played out.

For example, I mentioned that the Cowboys needed DLine and DBs and that this draft is deep in both positions. It’s very clear that the Cowboys anticipated this depth and engineered their team to need those things most right at the time when they were most available. Excellent job, especially since in so doing they will have more draft choices next year to find whatever positions are deep in 2018.

Don’t ask me what they are. I’m not a professional and I haven’t started to research that draft class yet. I’m hoping it will be deep in offensive tackles (a premium position that was extremely weak this year), linebackers (where Dallas has some young players looking for their next contract), and receiver (because Dez is getting old and we need an heir).

As a spectacle, it’s getting more fun too. The NFL and the Make-a-Wish Foundation arranged for a kid to announce the Baltimore Ravens pick. Awesome thing.

The announcers in general are getting more fun. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, former players or people affiliated with the teams announce the picks. The draft was held in Philadelphia this year, home of one of Dallas’s greatest rivals, so when retired Cowboy great Drew Pearson took the stage to announce the pick, he was soundly booed. He gave it back in spades by epicly trolling them. Brilliant stuff.

Sports are entertainment. One of my biggest problems with the NFL is that sometimes it takes itself too seriously. It’s great to see the draft changing, and perhaps that will cause some other changes, like getting rid of stupid overcelebration penalties.

It’s only 358 days to the 2018 NFL Draft, but who’s counting?

 

NFL Christmas

This is one crazy weekend for me. I will be at Planet Comicon talking to as many of the 60,000 or so attendees as I can starting 11ish tomorrow.

But I’ll also have an eye on one of my favorite weekends of the sports year, the NFL Draft.

Now, this isn’t like the full Opening Day of baseball or the Super Bowl, which are national holidays to me. No, this is sort of like a combination of final exams and kiln Christmas, the term my potter friends for the moment when the open the kiln after a firing and see what their final results are.

I love thinking about sports from a GM’s perspective. In other words, how they create rosters, even to the point of considering how I would adjust to fit under salary caps. I probably know more about NFL salary cap structures than nearly all non-accountants.

It’s a complicated dance, sort of like a multi-faceted Sudoku game. The numbers have to line up, and I love the challenge of playing armchair GM.

For people like me, the NFL draft is a lot of fun. Other drafts are interesting, but the NBA draft is tooooo short (2 rounds). The baseball draft is tooooo long (30+ rounds). The NFL draft, however, is juuuuust right. 7 rounds, 32 teams, which would be 224 picks, but we also add a number of compensatory picks awarded to teams who lost some free agents the previous year. This year, all told, there are 253 picks.

I watch enough college football and absorb enough research, mock drafts, and scouting reports, that I have some idea about 300 players going into the draft.

I then spend the draft seeing if what I’ve judged matches what the true experts judged.

And then it keeps giving, because you really can’t judge a draft until its 3rd year, so yes, I pay attention to NFL players that I thought were interesting, or would be busts, from many years past.

How do I do, you may ask? Pretty good, actually. I’ve learned some things that generally make more of a difference than one might think.

For example, speed is important for a wide receiver, as one would guess, but past a certain point (around 4.6 40-yard dash), the physical attribute most correlated with success for receivers is height. All else being equal, a receiver with 4.59 speed who’s 6ft 3in will do better in the NFL than a receiver with 4.39 speed who’s 5ft 10in. The reason for this is that the people who defend receivers need exceptional quickness, but few taller players have exceptional quickness.

Pass rushers need long arms more than anything else, but of course if they don’t have a certain baseline of strength they can’t do much. Still, 36in arms are a huge leg up, so to speak, for a defensive lineman. The reason, by the way, is that if an offensive linemen gets his hands on a defensive lineman, it’s difficult for the defender to get to the ballcarrier.

Lots of stuff like this. Fascinating for me.

And the players often have interesting stories. One of the sad stories this year is that of Jake Butt. Yes, that’s his name. And yes, he’s a tight end. The jokes write themselves. The sad part of the story is that he got hurt in his final college game and he lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. However, he’s definitely got a sense of humor. Charmin has hired him as one of their spokesbutts… er… spokesmen.

The first round of the draft is tonight. The second and third tomorrow night. The final four rounds on Saturday.

I’ll be watching every pick when I can, more curious than any cat about the trades that shape the draft.

And yes, you can expect a draft review next week. Once I’ve recovered.